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| MEDT1 | IMF3 | OECD4 | Alfa Bank | Bureau of Economic Analysis Foundation | Center of Macroeconomic Analysis & Short-term Forecasting | Economic Expert Group | Development Center | Troika Dialog | Deutsche Bank | Dresdner Bank | ||||||||||
| Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 2b | Forecast-May | Forecast-November | Forecast-May | |||||||||||||||
| Forecast date | March 2006 | March 2006 | March 2006 | May 2006 | November 2005 | May 2006 | February 2006 | February 2006 | May 2006 | May 2006 | May 2006 | May 2006 | May 2006 | March 2006 | ||||||
| Real Sector and Trade | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP (% change YoY) | 5.3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | ||||||
| Nominal GDP (in current prices, bln.Rbl) | 29320.0 | 29430.0 | 30070.0 | 28657.0 | 30057.0 | 25685.0 | 30999.0 | 30200.0 | 30146.0 | 29600.0 | 31862.0 | 27257.0 | ||||||||
| Index of Industrial Production (% change YoY) | 3.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||||||||||
| Fixed Capital Investment (% change YoY) | 7.5 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 8.7 | |||||||||||
| Retail sales, real (% change YoY) | 8.8 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 9.0 | |||||||||||
| Earnings and Income | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Disposable Personal Income, real (% change YoY) | 8.5 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||
| Average Monthly Wages (USD) | 438.0 | 441.9 | 451.0 | 393.0 | 462.0 | 410.0 | 443.0 | 420.0 | ||||||||||||
| Prices and exchange rate | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Consumer Price Index (% change Dec/Dec) | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | ||||||
| Exchange Rate, eop (Rbl/USD) | 27.6 | 27.6 | 26.6 | 28.5 | 30.1 | 26.6 | 28.2 | 26.8 | 27.8 | 27.5 | 28.3 | |||||||||
| Money Supply | ||||||||||||||||||||
| M2 (% change Dec/Dec) | 24.0 | 32.0 | 28.0 | 24.0 | 27.2 | 24.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Foreign Exchange Reserves, eop (bln. USD) | 338.9 | 270.0 | 220.0 | 309.5 | 302.6 | 293.8 | 290.0 | 250.0 | 255.0 | |||||||||||
| Public Finance | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Federal Budget Balance, IMF definition (% of GDP) | 6.5 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||||||||||
| Foreign Trade | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Export (bln. USD) | 258.0 | 261.6 | 279.7 | 320.4 | 245.0 | 271.0 | 284.0 | 280.9 | 296.3 | 290.0 | 291.5 | 278.0 | ||||||||
| Import (bln. USD) | 175.8 | 177.5 | 180.4 | 208.9 | 162.0 | 128.0 | 185.0 | 187.6 | 190.9 | 169.0 | 161.4 | 180.0 | ||||||||
| Trade Balance (bln. USD) | 82.2 | 84.1 | 99.3 | 111.5 | 83.0 | 143.0 | 99.0 | 93.3 | 105.4 | 121.0 | 130.1 | 98.0 | ||||||||
| Current Account (bln. USD) | 99.0 | 57.0 | 53.0 | 105.0 | 64.0 | 59.4 | 85.8 | 70.0 | 88.0 | 54.0 | ||||||||||
| Average Price of Urals Crude Oil (USD per barrel) | 49.0 | 49.0 | 55.0 | 42.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 53.0 | 55.0 | 52.0 | 40.7 | ||||||||||
| 1 Official forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. Scenario forecasts was published in "Scenarios of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the year 2007 and for the period till 2008". Scenario 1 is based on inertial slow-down of economic growth due to stagnating exports and deterioration of price competitiveness of domestic production and rising pressures from imported goods Scenario 2 is based on the assumption of accelerating economic growth arising from positive effects of adopted government policy and rapid adaptation of Russian business to international competitive pressures. This scenario is taken as a basis for financial plan of Russian government for 2007-2009. Scenario 2b is modified version of scenario 2 with higher oil prices in 2007-2009. |
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| 3 Official forecasts of IMF. Forecasts are published bi-annualy in World Economic Outlook (April, September). | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 Official forecasts of OECD. Forecasts are published bi-annualy in OECD Economic Outlook (May, November). |
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