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| MEDT1 | Bank of Russia2 | IMF3 | OECD4 | Alfa Bank | Bureau of Economic Analysis Foundation | Center of Macroeconomic Analysis & Short-term Forecasting | Economic Expert Group | Development Center | Troika Dialog | Deutsche Bank | Dresdner Bank | ||||||||
| Forecast | Current Estimates | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Forecast-April | Forecast-September | Forecast-May | Forecast-May | Forecast-November | Forecast-May | |||||||||
| Forecast date | March 2006 | December 2005 | December 2005 | December 2005 | April 2005 | September 2005 | May 2006 | May 2005 | November 2005 | May 2006 | February 2006 | February 2006 | May 2006 | May 2006 | May 2006 | May 2006 | May 2006 | March 2006 | |
| Real Sector and Trade | |||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP (% change YoY) | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | |
| Nominal GDP (in current prices, bln.Rbl) | 25810.0 | 24966.1 | 26680.0 | 25152.0 | 25544.0 | 24750.0 | 26696.0 | 26250.0 | 26749.0 | 25900.0 | 25879.0 | 23486.4 | |||||||
| Index of Industrial Production (% change YoY) | 4.4 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | ||||||||||||
| Fixed Capital Investment (% change YoY) | 11.3 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 9.0 | |||||||||
| Retail sales, real (% change YoY) | 11.8 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||
| Earnings and Income | |||||||||||||||||||
| Disposable Personal Income, real (% change YoY) | 9.2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 10.0 | ||||||||||
| Average Monthly Wages (USD) | 374.0 | 357.0 | 374.0 | 365.0 | 361.0 | 360.0 | |||||||||||||
| Prices and exchange rate | |||||||||||||||||||
| Consumer Price Index (% change Dec/Dec) | 8.5 | 7-8.5 | 7-8.5 | 7-8.5 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 10.5 | |
| Exchange Rate, eop (Rbl/USD) | 27.4 | 28.0 | 28.4 | 29.3 | 27.4 | 28.0 | 27.5 | 27.3 | 27.0 | 27.8 | |||||||||
| Money Supply | |||||||||||||||||||
| M2 (% change Dec/Dec) | 22.5 | 23.5 | 26.5 | 22.8 | 33.5 | 30.0 | 35.0 | 35.5 | 29.0 | 35.1 | 32.0 | ||||||||
| Foreign Exchange Reserves, eop (bln. USD) | 233.9 | 260.9 | 286.6 | 248.2 | 304.1 | 266.2 | 240.0 | 205.0 | 255.2 | 247.8 | 246.9 | 235.0 | 230.0 | 225.0 | |||||
| Public Finance | |||||||||||||||||||
| Federal Budget Balance, IMF definition (% of GDP) | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 4.0 | ||||||
| Foreign Trade | |||||||||||||||||||
| Export (bln. USD) | 267.7 | 262.0 | 291.8 | 319.6 | 270.4 | 327.7 | 309.0 | 250.0 | 252.0 | 274.0 | 286.8 | 291.0 | 285.0 | 269.5 | 264.5 | ||||
| Import (bln. USD) | 153.0 | 183.2 | 185.8 | 187.5 | 182.9 | 196.1 | 187.3 | 140.0 | 121.0 | 153.0 | 153.3 | 158.2 | 151.2 | 133.6 | 150.0 | ||||
| Trade Balance (bln. USD) | 114.7 | 78.8 | 106.0 | 132.0 | 87.5 | 131.6 | 121.7 | 110.0 | 131.0 | 121.0 | 133.5 | 132.8 | 133.8 | 135.9 | 114.5 | ||||
| Current Account (bln. USD) | 65.8 | 92.9 | 118.6 | 74.9 | 119.6 | 106.0 | 81.0 | 80.0 | 99.0 | 90.0 | 100.2 | 109.1 | 87.4 | 98.1 | 76.5 | ||||
| Average Price of Urals Crude Oil (USD per barrel) | 54.0 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 60.0 | 47.0 | 53.0 | 54.0 | 57.0 | 58.0 | 60.0 | 53.9 | ||||||||
| 1 Official forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. Forecasts was published in "Scenarios of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the year 2007 and for the period till 2008". Current estimates reflect forecasts revision withing the forecast period |
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| 2 Official forecasts of the Central Bank of RF. Scenario forecasts was published in "Monetary Policy Guidelines for the year 2006". According to Scenario 1 energy prices will decline but generally stay on a rather high level. Scenario 2 presumes that energy prices will stay at the same level as in 2005. Scenario 3 presumes an increase in energy prices relative to 2005 levels |
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| 3 Official forecasts of IMF. Forecasts are published bi-annualy in World Economic Outlook (April, September). | |||||||||||||||||||
| 4 Official forecasts of OECD. Forecasts are published bi-annualy in OECD Economic Outlook (May, November). |
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