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| Final figures | MEDT1 | Bank of Russia2 | IMF3 | OECD4 | Alfa Bank | Bureau of Economic Analysis Foundation | Center of Macroeconomic Analysis & Short-term Forecasting | Economic Expert Group | Development Center | Troika Dialog | Deutsche Bank | Dresdner Bank | |||||||||
| Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Current Estimates | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Current Estimates | Forecast-September | Forecast-April | Forecast-September | Forecast-May | Forecast-November | ||||||||||
| Forecast date | February 2006 | Start of the year | Start of the year | December 2005 | Start of the year | Start of the year | Start of the year | August 2005 | September 2004 | April 2005 | September 2005 | May 2005 | November 2005 | November 2005 | November 2005 | November 2005 | November 2005 | November 2005 | November 2005 | November 2005 | November 2005 |
| Real Sector and Trade | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP (% change YoY) | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | |
| Nominal GDP (in current prices, bln.Rbl) | 21665 | 19800.0 | 20050.0 | 21280 | 21474.75* | 21979.2* | 21850* | 21085* | 20868.0 | 21110.0 | 20750.0 | 21000.0 | 22114.0 | 21000.0 | 21038.2 | 19668.5 | |||||
| Index of Industrial Production (% change YoY) | 4 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 5.0 | ||||||||
| Fixed Capital Investment (% change YoY) | 10.5 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 10.5 | ||||||||
| Retail sales, real (% change YoY) | 12 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 11.6 | |||||||||
| Earnings and Income | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Disposable Personal Income, real (% change YoY) | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 10.6 | |||||||||
| Average Monthly Wages (USD) | 301 | 291.4 | 291.4 | 298.0 | 302.0 | 300.0 | 300.0 | 300.0 | 300.0 | ||||||||||||
| Prices and exchange rate | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Consumer Price Index (% change Dec/Dec) | 10.9 | 8.5-10 | 8.5-10 | 11-11.5 | 7.5-8.5 | 7.5-8.5 | 7.5-8.5 | 8.7*** | 11.8*** | 12.8 | 13.0 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 12.5 | |
| Exchange Rate, eop (Rbl/USD) | 28.78 | 28.7 | 30.7 | 30.2 | 30.0 | 28.1 | 28.6 | 28.5 | 28.2 | 28.6 | 28.4 | 28.3 | 27.8 | ||||||||
| Money Supply | |||||||||||||||||||||
| M2 (% change Dec/Dec) | 38.5 | 33.2 | 37.8 | 44.0 | 39.0 | 35.0 | 32.7 | 39.0 | |||||||||||||
| Foreign Exchange Reserves, eop (bln. USD) | 182.2 | 7.4** | 15.2** | 19** | 59.4 | 124.8 | 183.1 | 195.6 | 170.0 | 184.0 | 174.0 | 179.5 | 176.6 | 175.0 | 175.0 | 170.0 | |||||
| Public Finance | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Federal Budget Balance, IMF definition (% of GDP) | 7.45 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | ||||||||
| Foreign Trade | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Export (bln. USD) | 245.3 | 204.7 | 213.0 | 247.0 | 176.6 | 187.2 | 192.3 | 269.0 | 209.2 | 259.5 | 284.4 | 242.6 | 241.7 | 246.7 | 249.7 | 240.0 | 233.2 | 235.0 | |||
| Import (bln. USD) | 125.1 | 117.0 | 117.0 | 123.2 | 140.8 | 143.5 | 144.8 | 158.2 | 111.7 | 159.5 | 169.0 | 117.1 | 119.2 | 116.9 | 124.2 | 116.3 | 127.2 | 125.0 | |||
| Trade Balance (bln. USD) | 120.2 | 123.8 | 35.8 | 43.7 | 47.6 | 110.8 | 97.5 | 100.0 | 115.4 | 125.5 | 122.5 | 129.7 | 125.6 | 123.7 | 106.0 | 110.0 | |||||
| Current Account (bln. USD) | 86.6 | 26.5 | 34.2 | 38.0 | 97.1 | 52.3 | 85.9 | 101.8 | 92.0 | 91.0 | 93.4 | 89.2 | 102.1 | 97.0 | 95.0 | 77.4 | 77.6 | ||||
| Average Price of Urals Crude Oil (USD per barrel) | 50.4 | 36.0 | 39.0 | 50.4 | 22.5 | 26.0 | 28.0 | 48.0 | 50.0 | 51.0 | 50.0 | 50.4 | 51.0 | 49.0 | |||||||
| * — In Roubles. ** — Change in bln. USD. *** — Inflation is given as yearly average. |
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| 1 Official forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. Scenario forecasts was published in "Scenarios of social and economic development and major values of the summary financial statement of balances of the Russian Federation for the year 2006 and for the period till 2008". Scenario 1 assumes retention of the inertia development trend, which is distinguished by lowering of competition of the Russian economy, absence of positive changes in the investment climate, and does not provide for implementation of any large-scale projects. Scenario 2 is aimed at innovation development based on implementation of a set of institutional changes and important development strategies in various sectors of the economy with the use of the private & public partnership mechanisms. Current estimates reflect forecasts revision withing the forecast period: December 2005 — according to "Revised socio-economic forecast of the Russian Federation for the year 2006 and for the period till 2008" |
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| 2 Official forecasts of the Central Bank of RF. Scenario forecasts was published in "Monetary Policy Guidelines for the year 2005". Scenario 1 is based on a deterioration of the price situation for Russian exports on world markets. According to Scenario 2 energy prices will decline but to smaller extent than in Scenario 1. Scenario 3 is based on more favorable external economic conditions than Scenario 1 and 2. |
Current estimates reflect forecasts revision withing the forecast period: August 2005 — according to "Monetary Policy Guidelines for the year 2006"
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| 3 Official forecasts of IMF. Forecasts are published bi-annualy in World Economic Outlook (April, September). Current estimates reflect forecasts revision withing the forecast period: June 2005 — According to the statement of the head of the International Monetary Fund's mission in Moscow Paul Thomsen on 3 June 2005. |
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| 4 Official forecasts of OECD. Forecasts are published bi-annualy in OECD Economic Outlook (May, November). |
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| © EU VEDI 2005; www.vedi.ru. | |||||||||||||||||||||
